Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – Is ‘Nomadland’ Still the Academy Frontrunner or Is Netflix Closing In?

This article was originally published by Variety 2/18/21. Written by Clayton Davis.

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The Golden Globes nominations were announced on Feb. 3, with Netflix’s “Mank” from David Fincher leading with six nods. As the ceremony approaches on Feb. 28, the categories have been analyzed to determine what they mean for the awards season. Several nominees have already made history, but with final voting taking place and due back to Ernst & Young’s accounting firm by Feb. 23, many films and performances could be record-breakers or trendsetters if they are selected as winners. Read all the records that could be set with each set of nominees for the Globes on Variety. With just under 30 days until the Oscar nominations, set to be announced on March 15, the race continues to take shape, possibly presenting more twists and turns over the next few weeks.

Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” is back on top for best picture, with Aaron Sorkin’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and Lee Isaac Chung’s “Minari” rounding out the top three spots. Emerald Fennell’s “Promising Young Woman” is still catching on, with some industry people believing it has a chance to win it in the end for Focus Features. Not the wildest of theories. Regina King’s “One Night in Miami” rounds out the top five contenders. Still, the film has always felt like something that either catches on significantly in all the expected categories or ends up a nomination day underperforming, such as films like Ava DuVernay’s “Selma” (2017) or Sean Penn’s “Into the Wild” (2007).

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

1. "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)

   PRODUCERS: Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao
SYNOPSIS: After losing everything in the Great Recession, an old woman embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad.
STARRING: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Linda May, Swankie, Bob Wells

2. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

   PRODUCERS: Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson
DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

3. "Minari" (A24)

   PRODUCERS: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh
DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

4. "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)

   PRODUCERS: Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Josey McNamara, Ashley Fox
DIRECTOR: Emerald Fennell
SYNOPSIS: A young woman, traumatized by a tragic event in her past, seeks out vengeance against those who cross her path.
STARRING: Carey Mulligan, Bo Burnham, Laverne Cox, Molly Shannon, Clancy Brown, Jennifer Coolidge, Max Greenfield, Alison Brie, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Connie Britton, Chris Lowell, Adam Brody, Sam Richardson

5. "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

   PRODUCERS: Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein
DIRECTOR: Regina King
SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s.
STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr.

6. "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)

   PRODUCERS: Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux
DIRECTOR: Paul Greengrass
SYNOPSIS: A Civil War veteran agrees to deliver a girl, taken by the Kiowa people years ago, to her aunt and uncle, against her will. They travel hundreds of miles and face grave dangers as they search for a place that either can call home.
STARRING: Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel, Elizabeth Marvel, Mare Winningham, Michael Angelo Covino, Ray McKinnon

7. "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)

   PRODUCERS: Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche, Bill Benz, Kathy Benz
DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff

8. "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)

   PRODUCERS: Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King
DIRECTOR: Shaka King
SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal.
STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler

9. "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)

   PRODUCERS: Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf
DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play..
STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman